Datafolha poll keeps Lula narrowly ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's election

A close contest holds steady

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva retained a narrow numerical advantage over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a Datafolha survey conducted less than a month before the presidential election. The poll placed Lula on 39% in a first-round scenario and Bolsonaro on 35%. Psychologist and author Augusto Cury registered 6%, while Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado had 4%. No candidate approached the majority needed to avoid a runoff.

In a simulated second round, Lula received 46% and Bolsonaro 44%. That two-point difference equals the survey's stated margin of error, so the result describes a statistical tie rather than a decisive lead. Datafolha interviewed 2,002 people from September 8 through September 10. The runoff figures were unchanged from the preceding survey, while both leading candidates gained ground in the first-round measurement.

Why the numbers matter

The poll confirms that Brazil is entering the final campaign period with neither political camp securely ahead. Lula is seeking a fourth presidential term and remains the principal figure of the Workers' Party-led coalition. Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has consolidated much of the conservative vote after his father became ineligible to mount his own return to office.

Brazil's electoral system requires more than half of valid votes for a first-round victory. If no candidate crosses that threshold, the two leaders proceed to a second round. Every presidential contest since 2002 has required that second vote, and the present distribution again makes a runoff the most plausible institutional pathway. The October campaign will therefore be fought both for first-round position and for support from voters backing smaller candidates.

What could still move the race

The remaining uncertainty is larger than the headline margin between Lula and Bolsonaro. Undecided voters, abstention, rejection rates and the eventual transfer of support from eliminated candidates can alter the runoff. The survey is a snapshot of stated intentions during its fieldwork, not a prediction of turnout or the final count. Small movements should be interpreted against the two-point sampling margin rather than presented as firm changes in leadership.

The official result will ultimately depend on Brazil's election authorities and ballots cast, not private polling. Before then, attention will focus on coalition endorsements, economic conditions and whether either campaign can expand beyond its established partisan base. The unchanged runoff numbers suggest that the immediate challenge for both sides is persuasion rather than consolidation: each already commands a large bloc, but neither has yet demonstrated a durable majority.