DR Congo says its Ebola outbreak has peaked as daily infections decline

Authorities report a turning point

The Democratic Republic of the Congo says the Ebola outbreak declared in May has reached its peak, the first official indication that transmission may be slowing after months of rapid expansion. Health Minister Samuel Roger Kamba said daily confirmed infections had fallen from roughly 120 at the outbreak’s height to about 80, while several health zones had gone weeks without recording another case.

The improvement is significant but remains provisional. More than 7,200 confirmed infections and over 3,475 deaths had been recorded by September 14, according to figures cited by the Guardian from the Congolese health ministry. The outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo variant and has spread across six provinces, with conflict-affected Ituri remaining a central focus of the response.

Officials said six health zones could be removed from the active list after passing 42 days without a new infection, while four others had exceeded 21 days. Those thresholds provide evidence that chains of transmission are being interrupted. However, authorities are continuing preventive measures and have not declared the nationwide outbreak over.

Surveillance remains the decisive test

Congolese lawmaker Iracan Gratien de Saint-Nicolas urged the government to publish the indicators supporting its assessment and warned against premature celebration. Epidemiological confidence depends not only on falling case totals but also on effective contact tracing, safe burials, fewer areas with active transmission and evidence that most new infections arise among people already being monitored.

Recent United Nations reporting shows why caution is warranted. On September 1, the UN said the outbreak was still advancing at an unprecedented pace, with more than 6,000 infections and almost 3,000 deaths then reported. Earlier UN updates described insecurity around treatment facilities, the temporary relocation of humanitarian personnel and constrained access to affected communities in eastern Congo.

The next several weeks will determine whether the decline is sustained or partly reflects gaps in detection. Authorities must maintain testing, tracing, community engagement and cross-border monitoring while clinical trials continue for a variant without an approved targeted treatment. A durable reduction across successive incubation periods, rather than a short fall in daily reports, would provide the clearest basis for declaring the epidemic controlled.