El Niño crosses the very-strong threshold as governments prepare for drought and floods

Pacific warming reaches a critical benchmark

El Niño has crossed the temperature threshold associated with a very strong event, raising the prospect of disruptive rainfall, drought and heat across several continents through 2027. Al Jazeera reported that US climate data released on September 14 showed warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific exceeding two degrees Celsius. The event began developing in June and is expected to persist into the March-to-May 2027 period, although its eventual peak remains uncertain.

The threshold is globally important because El Niño alters atmospheric circulation rather than affecting only Pacific coastlines. Historical patterns point toward heavier rain in parts of East Africa, western South America and the southern United States. Drier conditions are more likely across Southern Africa, South and Southeast Asia and Australia. Forecasters caution that these are broad tendencies, not precise local predictions: conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans can amplify, redirect or weaken the expected effects.

Food systems face the earliest pressure

Agriculture is among the first sectors exposed. FAO said on September 7 that the 2026-27 outlook favours below-normal rainfall across much of central and southern Southern Africa, alongside unusually high temperatures. Maize and other rain-fed crops are especially vulnerable when planting seasons coincide with persistent moisture deficits. The agency is working with governments on measures such as earlier access to seed and animal feed, financing triggered by forecasts and closer monitoring of water and pasture conditions.

The risk is different in the Horn of Africa. Al Jazeera cited a 90 percent probability of wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of southern Ethiopia, Somalia and northeastern Kenya during the October-to-December rainy season. Such rainfall can restore water supplies and pasture, but intense downpours may also produce floods, landslides, crop losses and displacement. FAO has separately warned that Somalia faces a substantial flooding threat during the coming Deyr season.

Forecast strength is not the same as local impact

A strong oceanic reading does not guarantee record damage everywhere. Governments still need regional forecasts, crop calendars and river-basin monitoring to determine when to act. Existing food insecurity, weak infrastructure and depleted household savings will influence whether a weather shock becomes a humanitarian crisis. The most important near-term indicators are whether Pacific warming continues, how the event changes approaching its expected early-2027 peak, and whether promised anticipatory funding reaches exposed farming and pastoral communities before losses occur.