OddsFrontKremlin confirms Russia will join Ukraine-US talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11
Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky will lead Moscow’s side, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, as Washington works to broker security arrangements for ending a war now in its fifth year.
Russia will send a delegation to three-way negotiations with Ukrainian and American representatives in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11, the Kremlin confirmed on Tuesday. The announcement turns a date floated by Washington a day earlier into a commitment from Moscow.
According to Reuters, carried by Al-Monitor, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists during a conference call that Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to President Vladimir Putin, will act as Russia’s chief negotiator. Peskov gave no further details of the Russian team or its mandate in the account published by the outlet.
Washington’s role
US envoy Steve Witkoff said on Monday that the United States would bring Ukrainian and Russian delegations together in the Emirati capital, Reuters reported. The agenda, as he described it, covers security arrangements for the period after the war and ways of easing the confrontation.
Meduza quoted a message Witkoff posted on X, in which he said the Abu Dhabi round would build on headway made in Kyiv, Oslo and St Petersburg toward a lasting settlement. He did not spell out in that message what the earlier progress consisted of.
Brussels meeting first
Before the Abu Dhabi round, American negotiators are scheduled to meet this week in Brussels with officials from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the European Union and NATO, Meduza reported, citing Witkoff. Those discussions are to deal with security guarantees for Ukraine, the shape of Europe’s security order after the fighting, and economic opportunities that could help fund Ukraine’s reconstruction.
Timing and background
Both Moscow and Kyiv had previously signalled that a meeting might follow the US midterm congressional elections, which take place on November 3, Meduza noted. Russia did not give a specific date, saying only that Abu Dhabi was the expected venue. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said talks could take place on November 10 provided they were not disrupted by escalation in the Middle East.
That caveat carries weight. Reuters pointed out that the previous US-mediated talks took place in February, before the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran. American negotiators have been looking for a breakthrough in a conflict that has now entered its fifth year.
Markets and what comes next
On Polymarket, traders put the chance of Russia-Ukraine peace talks taking place by November 30 at 93%, up from 69% a day earlier.
Several points remain open. The outlets did not say who will lead the Ukrainian and American delegations, whether the sides will meet face to face in one room, or what concrete proposals will be tabled. Whether developments in the Middle East will affect the schedule, as Zelensky suggested they might, also remains to be seen. The Brussels consultations later this week will show how closely European governments are aligned with Washington before the Abu Dhabi round opens.