Reuters/Ipsos poll gives Democrats a seven-point US midterm advantage

A widening congressional preference

Democrats held a seven-point advantage over Republicans when Americans were asked which party they would support if congressional elections were held immediately, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published September 14. Forty-four percent selected Democrats and 37 percent Republicans, the widest Democratic lead in this measure since Donald Trump began his second presidential term in January 2025.

The result does not forecast individual House or Senate contests. Congressional control is determined district by district and state by state, where candidate quality, turnout and electoral geography can produce outcomes different from a national survey. It nevertheless provides a current measure of the political environment as both parties prepare for the November midterms and Republicans defend their ability to advance the president’s programme.

Trump recovers, but only slightly

Trump’s job approval rose to 35 percent from 33 percent in the previous Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted from August 28 to 31. The earlier figure was the lowest of his political career. The new poll collected responses from 1,143 adults over four days and reported a margin of error of three percentage points in either direction, meaning the two-point approval change should be treated cautiously.

Economic perceptions were another warning for Republicans. Respondents narrowly preferred Democrats over Republicans as managers of the economy, 38 percent to 37 percent. Reuters said that reversal emerged during the summer after Republicans had held an advantage on the issue for years. High fuel costs and disruption linked to the Iran war provide an especially difficult backdrop because they affect household budgets while limiting how quickly domestic policy can deliver relief.

The dividend promise meets resistance

The poll also tested Trump’s conditional promise to issue a $5,000 payment to every adult American citizen if Republicans retain both chambers. Sixty-three percent disapproved, including four in ten Republicans and nine in ten Democrats. The White House has promoted the proposed payment as a return of economic gains to citizens and has explicitly tied it to Republican control, making it both a policy pledge and a central campaign argument.

The next useful evidence will come from competitive-state and district polling, campaign-finance reports and actual voting once early ballots are cast. National preference can identify momentum but cannot resolve where seats will change hands. For now, the survey’s most consequential finding is not the small improvement in Trump’s approval; it is that dissatisfaction remains broad enough to give Democrats their largest national congressional advantage of his second term.