Russia and Ukraine hold Oleshky truce as residents get until Friday to leave

Russia and Ukraine have agreed a temporary ceasefire in the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky, in Ukraine’s Kherson region, and residents who wish to leave have until 2 p.m. on Friday, October 30, to do so, Meduza reported. Aid for those who stay is due to be handed out after 2:30 p.m. the same day.

According to Meduza, the routes for the humanitarian mission have been cleared of mines. Russia’s human rights commissioner, Yana Lantratova, and her Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Lubinets, said the convoy was ready to depart and would head for the central district hospital.

Lubinets said delegations from Ukraine, Russia and the United States had assembled to coordinate the next steps, with journalists from all three countries present.

How the truce came about

Meduza said the pause in fighting was brokered by US first lady Melania Trump. It took effect on the morning of October 27 and is meant to hold until late on the evening of November 1. The Kyiv Independent quoted her senior adviser, Marc Beckman, as saying she took up the issue after learning of the crisis during the UN General Assembly week. The paper noted that earlier efforts by the United Nations, the Red Cross and Pope Leo XVI had not produced an agreement. Beckman said all parties, the Russians included, were acting in good faith.

Ukrainska Pravda reported that Lubinets travelled to Oleshky through Russian territory. His office said the other options were crossing the front line, where restrictions apply, or crossing the river, where the ground is mined. Belarusian state outlet BelTA said he arrived in Gomel and then flew on the same plane as Russian representatives. His office said he would answer questions once the mission was finished.

Doubts over Moscow’s motives

The Kyiv Independent described Oleshky as a city across the Dnipro from Kherson that has been occupied since the early days of the full-scale invasion and effectively blockaded, with residents short of food, water and electricity. President Vladimir Putin on October 29 accused Ukraine of creating a humanitarian catastrophe there.

Analysts quoted by the paper see Moscow using the truce to shape perceptions ahead of new peace talks. John Foreman, a former British defence attaché in Kyiv and Moscow, said Russia knew exactly what it was doing and that crediting Melania Trump helped the Kremlin with Trump’s base before the midterms. Petro Andriushchenko of the Center for the Study of the Occupation said Russia was unlikely to break the truce, since it would not want to endanger its relationship with Trump.

An anonymous source told the paper that hospital patients were being registered and warned of filtration, and that villagers had been told they could be shot if they approached the assembly point. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha had earlier warned of staged videos. Russian-installed regional head Volodymyr Saldo said residents could choose between staying and going to Ukrainian-held territory.

What remains unresolved

The Kyiv Independent noted that Oleshky is not the only cut-off place. Daria Rabinovitsch of the group Helping to Leave named at least three others: the Kinburn Spit, settlements in the Polohy District of Zaporizhzhia region, and Enerhodar. Whether the evacuation and aid delivery proceed as agreed before the truce expires on November 1 is the next test.