Russia’s eight-month federal budget deficit reaches 5.8 trillion rubles

The annual target is already exceeded

Russia recorded a federal budget deficit of 5.8 trillion rubles during the first eight months of 2026, equivalent to 2.5% of gross domestic product, according to preliminary Finance Ministry figures reported by Meduza. That is about one and a half times the comparable deficit a year earlier. More strikingly, the accumulated gap already exceeds the government’s full-year projection of 3.8 trillion rubles, or 1.6% of GDP, with four months still remaining.

Expenditure reached 31.7 trillion rubles, rising 14.7% from the same period in 2025, while revenue increased 9.2% to 25.9 trillion. Oil-and-gas receipts fell 16.7% to five trillion rubles. Non-energy revenue grew faster and cushioned part of that loss, but it was insufficient to match spending. The Finance Ministry attributed unusually rapid expenditure growth partly to advance payments on state contracts made early in the year.

Financing pressure is building

The figures point to a financing problem rather than an immediate inability to pay. Moscow can issue domestic debt, draw on budget reserves or sell assets. Each option carries costs. Meduza reported that the Finance Ministry cancelled three bond auctions during June and July after annual yields moved above 16%, indicating that borrowing on acceptable terms had become more difficult. The government has planned 5.5 trillion rubles of domestic borrowing for the year.

The Kremlin dismissed the accumulated deficit as a moving figure and said macroeconomic stability remained assured. An official European Commission assessment published in July presents a less favourable external view. It said Russia’s budget was under growing pressure, sovereign-wealth liquidity had been substantially depleted and energy restrictions were reducing fiscal revenue. The Commission also noted increasing reliance on large Russian banks to absorb government-bond issuance. Those are policy assessments, not independent confirmation of every Russian budget figure.

What to watch

September-to-December revenue will determine whether higher energy prices can narrow the gap or whether expenditure continues to dominate. Bond-auction demand and yields will show how costly domestic financing has become. Reserve withdrawals would reveal how much of the adjustment is being shifted to accumulated state savings. Revised appropriations could also clarify whether advance contract payments merely brought spending forward or whether the deficit reflects a durable increase in war-related and other federal commitments.