OddsFrontRussian pressure intensifies around Ukraine’s Sloviansk-Kramatorsk fortress belt
Daily glide-bomb and drone danger is driving evacuations from the largest Donbas cities that remain fully controlled by Ukraine.
Evacuations from the fortress cities
Ukrainian police are urging civilians to leave Sloviansk and Kramatorsk as Russian drone and glide-bomb attacks intensify around the largest cities still wholly controlled by Kyiv in the Donbas. Forced evacuations of families with children have begun in the worst-affected locations. Together with Kostiantynivka to the south, the cities form the fortified defensive belt blocking a broader Russian advance through northern Donetsk Oblast.
BBC analysis of Ukrainian police data found a sharp summer increase in civilian harm and the use of glide bombs. Reported casualties in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk rose from 70 wounded in June to 212 in August. The recorded number of glide bombs increased from 40 in June to 109 in July and 92 in August. Residential districts and infrastructure have both sustained damage.
The figures describe an escalation over several months rather than one newly confirmed strike, so the development does not qualify for a map alert. Russia’s use of winged bombs allows aircraft to release heavy explosives from farther behind the front, while small first-person-view drones threaten roads and vehicles. Anti-drone netting now covers important streets, but police and volunteers describe travel through the urban area as increasingly dangerous.
Why the belt matters
Russia controls nearly all of Luhansk Oblast and much of Donetsk Oblast, but Sloviansk and Kramatorsk remain major administrative, logistical and symbolic centres for Ukraine. Capturing them would remove the core of Kyiv’s remaining urban defensive system in the region and could make further movement west easier. Ukraine disputes Russian claims to full control of Kostiantynivka, where reporting indicates only a reduced Ukrainian presence remains.
The territorial issue also hangs over diplomacy. The future of Ukrainian-held Donbas was reportedly discussed during recent visits by US envoys, while President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected withdrawing Ukrainian forces. Kyiv says Moscow’s priority remains the Kostiantynivka-Sloviansk axis and has created new task forces led by experienced commanders to reinforce its defence.
NATO continues to recognise the occupied Donbas as Ukrainian territory and says allied assistance is intended to help Ukraine defend its sovereignty. Its 2026 summit pledge covers military equipment, training and assistance, including air defence and unmanned systems. What matters next is whether evacuations expand, whether Russia can bring ground forces closer to the two cities, and whether promised interceptor and artillery deliveries arrive quickly enough to blunt the pressure.