Sahel jihadist violence is on course to exceed 3,000 incidents in 2026

Violence approaches a new record

Violence involving al-Qaeda- and Islamic State-linked groups across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger is on course to pass 3,000 incidents in 2026, according to conflict data reported by the Guardian. The regional count rose from 63 incidents in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025, while 2,145 had already been recorded this year. The trajectory shows that the central Sahel’s security crisis is continuing to deepen despite years of military operations and successive changes of government.

Two insurgencies are expanding

Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, has widened its operational reach while maintaining pressure on state forces and transport routes. The Guardian reported more than 130 JNIM attacks in Burkina Faso this year and at least 17 in Niger. Islamic State in the Greater Sahara has also become more active in Niger. The pattern is not a single offensive but a sustained spread of armed activity across poorly governed borderlands and increasingly important economic corridors.

Mali remains a central pressure point

A coordinated offensive in April involving JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front underscored the challenge confronting Mali’s military government. The United Nations separately documented the continuing national security crisis and condemned an April attack in which a Malian military camp at Boulkessi was overrun. The UN said the assault caused significant casualties and called for those responsible to be held accountable, while urging renewed attention to civilian protection and regional stability.

Civilian costs extend beyond fatalities

The UN recorded more than 9,000 deaths linked to security incidents across the Sahel in 2025, according to the Guardian’s account. Communities also face displacement, disrupted farming, closed schools and constrained humanitarian access. Armed groups increasingly benefit when roads become unsafe, local administrations retreat and residents lose confidence that national forces can protect them. Those pressures can reinforce recruitment and taxation networks even where insurgents do not permanently occupy major towns.

What to watch

The immediate test is whether Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger can protect population centres and cross-border routes without further isolating themselves from intelligence, humanitarian and development partners. Another question is whether JNIM and Islamic State affiliates concentrate on territorial control or continue using mobile attacks to exhaust national forces. The projected record is an analytical warning rather than confirmation of a new individual attack, so it does not qualify for a map strike alert.