Study warns US drug-pricing policy could delay new medicines in Europe

US savings may alter overseas launches

A new modelling study reported by Euronews on September 14 warns that the United States' most-favoured-nation drug-pricing policy could encourage pharmaceutical companies to delay launching medicines in lower-price European markets. The potential incentive arises because US reimbursement for some drugs is linked to prices paid in other developed countries.

Researchers examined 195 patented medicines representing $87.9 billion in annual US spending. According to Euronews, their model found that for about three-quarters of the medicines, the revenue lost by reducing American prices could exceed annual sales in the countries used as pricing references. A manufacturer could therefore protect more valuable US revenue by postponing or avoiding a launch in a country where the negotiated price would be lower.

A policy with international reach

The White House says its framework is intended to reduce the gap between US prices and those paid by comparable developed countries. An official May report recorded voluntary agreements with 17 large pharmaceutical manufacturers and said the administration wanted Congress to codify the arrangements. The government presents the policy as a source of savings for patients and public programmes.

The modelling does not establish that companies will follow the most disruptive strategy. Euronews noted that launch decisions are also influenced by reimbursement negotiations, market size, manufacturing capacity and regulation. It nevertheless reported that European patient representatives view delayed access as a concrete risk for people with serious or progressive illnesses.

European rules provide a partial counterweight. Updated pharmaceutical legislation can reduce a company's period of market protection if it fails to launch a medicine within three years after a member state requests access. Euronews reported that analysts remain uncertain whether this incentive is strong enough to offset the much larger revenue at stake in the US market. The European Commission is separately assessing whether reference pricing is already affecting launch timing or prices.

Evidence will take time

The crucial distinction is between modelled incentives and observed causation. A recent decline in European drug launches cannot yet be attributed solely to the US policy, and the Commission has indicated that current evidence remains insufficient for firm conclusions. Governments will now watch launch dates, negotiated prices and access gaps across reference countries such as Germany and France. If delays become systematic, Europe may face a difficult choice between paying more for early access and strengthening rules that require companies to serve smaller or lower-price markets.