OddsFrontSununu and Pappas win New Hampshire primaries, setting a pivotal US Senate contest
The November matchup will test whether Republicans can break a long losing streak in New Hampshire while Democrats defend an open seat crucial to their hopes of retaking the Senate.
The nominees are set
Former Republican senator John E Sununu and Democratic congressman Chris Pappas won their respective New Hampshire primaries on September 8, establishing one of the most closely watched Senate races of the 2026 US midterms. They are competing for the seat being vacated by three-term Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, whose retirement created an open contest in a state with a history of splitting its choices between parties.
Sununu defeated a Republican field that included former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown. Although President Donald Trump endorsed him, Sununu has tried to retain an independent profile, including criticism of tariffs and the decision to begin military action against Iran. He previously represented New Hampshire in the Senate from 2003 until 2009 and now enters the general election with high name recognition.
Pappas overcame a progressive challenge from Karishma Manzur. He has represented New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District since 2019 and campaigned as a centrist with experience winning competitive elections. The primary also exposed divisions over economic policy and US support for Israel, issues that could influence Democratic turnout even though Pappas began the race with establishment support and a financial advantage.
A small state with national stakes
New Hampshire has generally sent Democrats to Congress while frequently choosing Republicans for state office. Republicans have not won one of its Senate contests since 2010, but the open seat gives them a plausible route back. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to regain control of the chamber, making a successful defence in New Hampshire central to their already difficult national strategy.
The matchup also illustrates the complicated influence of Trump in the midterms. His endorsement helped consolidate Sununu’s Republican support despite their previous disagreements. Pappas is expected to link his opponent to an administration whose policies and popularity have become defining campaign issues, while Sununu will try to persuade voters that he can support parts of the Republican programme without abandoning New Hampshire’s more independent electorate.
Attention now shifts to party spending, candidate debates and turnout. The state’s narrow margin in the 2024 presidential election makes neither side secure. The November result will provide an important measure of whether Republican strength in state government can finally translate into a federal Senate victory, and whether Democrats can preserve the coalition needed to keep a path to chamber control.