Sweden enters election day with the far right closer than ever to cabinet power

A vote with an unusually consequential coalition choice

Sweden goes to the polls on September 13 in an election that could bring the far-right Sweden Democrats into the national cabinet for the first time. The final campaign has left the centre-left and right-wing blocs effectively level, turning the performance of several smaller parties into a potential deciding factor. The Guardian reported on September 12 that a Dagens Nyheter/Ipsos poll translated into a projected 175 seats for the left-leaning bloc and 174 for the right, a margin far too narrow to establish a reliable outcome before votes are counted.

Former prime minister Magdalena Andersson and her Social Democrats lead the centre-left opposition and remain favourites to emerge as the largest governing force. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's Moderates are campaigning to retain power with the parties that have supported his minority administration. The crucial change is Kristersson's willingness to offer cabinet positions to the Sweden Democrats if the right secures a majority. In 2022, he relied on the party's parliamentary support without placing it inside the government.

Immigration policy has already shifted

The Sweden Democrats have exercised substantial influence over crime and migration policy during the outgoing parliament. Their programme now calls for further reductions in immigration, possible revocation of permanent residence permits and new legislation addressing what the party describes as anti-Swedish hostility. The wider political effect extends beyond the party itself: the Social Democrats have also adopted more restrictive positions on crime, immigration and integration, making a complete reversal of recent policy unlikely under either coalition.

The institutional stakes are broader than a contest between two prospective prime ministers. European Commission material on Sweden's rule-of-law framework describes constitutional changes intended to make the country's basic law harder to amend, including a proposed two-thirds majority for the second parliamentary vote. Because a general election must occur between the two votes, the composition of the next Riksdag will directly shape whether those safeguards can take effect as proposed in 2027.

Small parties and coalition talks may decide the outcome

Healthcare, household finances, public safety and migration have dominated the campaign. On the right, the Liberals' ability to remain represented could determine whether Kristersson has a viable majority. On the left, the Centre Party's result may be equally important. High early voting underlines the level of engagement but does not resolve the uncertainty because the blocs remain so close.

Preliminary results are expected on Sunday night, but a clear government may take substantially longer. If the right wins, negotiations will determine the number and scope of ministries offered to the Sweden Democrats. If it loses, the Moderates and their partners will face a strategic debate over whether formalising their relationship with the far right helped or hurt them. The immediate facts to watch are the smaller parties' vote shares, the final seat allocation and whether either bloc can assemble a working parliamentary majority.