OddsFrontTrump administration to drop South Africa and Rwanda from AGOA duty-free trade programme
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said both countries fail the programme’s eligibility test. Their duty-free access to the American market is due to end in January 2027, with South Africa’s $1.7 billion in exports at stake.
The United States plans to end South Africa’s and Rwanda’s participation in the African Growth and Opportunity Act, the duty-free trade scheme for sub-Saharan Africa, from 1 January 2027. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced the decision on Monday, saying President Donald Trump had judged both governments to be falling short of the programme’s conditions.
The BBC reported that Trump has informed Congress of the plan and that the two countries were also notified directly. Greer said an annual eligibility review had turned up practices at odds with the criteria, among them obstacles to American trade and investment and issues touching US security and foreign policy interests in the region, according to DW and the BBC.
Different grounds for each country
DW noted that the statement offered no concrete examples of the trade barriers or the security concerns. Al Jazeera and the BBC reported that Washington attached further reasons to each case. For Rwanda, it pointed to human rights, political pluralism, the rule of law and workers’ rights. For South Africa, it added corruption.
Rwanda is not new to this. Al Jazeera noted it was also suspended from the scheme in 2018. The latest step follows by about a week US Treasury sanctions on Rwanda’s defence ministry over its alleged role in the rebellion in eastern Congo. The BBC cited the Treasury as saying the ministry sent thousands of troops to fight alongside M23 and supplied weapons, equipment, logistics and training. DW said the ministry denies any link to the group.
What South Africa stands to lose
South Africa has been the largest beneficiary of AGOA. Al Jazeera and DW put its exports under the scheme in 2025 at $1.7 billion, mostly vehicles and parts, farm products and wine. Rwanda’s main exports to the US, Al Jazeera said, are coffee, tea and minerals.
South Africa’s Department of Trade, Industry and Competition said last week that it was ready for an unfavourable outcome and open to dialogue. It argued that AGOA shipments make up only about 10% of its exports to the US and 1% of its exports worldwide. DW reported that the government said on Monday that the US remains an important partner and that it would support affected sectors. President Cyril Ramaphosa has said the country must look for new markets and deals, including with China.
South Africa’s citrus industry warned that its whole value chain “on both sides of the Atlantic, is now under threat,” DW reported.
Strained ties and next steps
The decision lands amid tense relations. Al Jazeera said the administration has pressed South Africa over Trump’s claim that white people are persecuted, which Pretoria calls false, and over its genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. Israel denies the allegations. The BBC said Trump raised “white genocide” in a White House meeting with Ramaphosa last year.
US Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III called the outcome “predictable and preventable,” blaming Pretoria’s rejection of American concerns, the BBC reported. Al Jazeera said neither government had responded immediately. Greer said the administration is working to help African partners meet the criteria, and the coming weeks will show whether either country tries to change the outcome before January.