OddsFrontUS approves possible $24.3bn sale of 48 F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia
The State Department has approved a possible sale of 48 F-35 fighters to Saudi Arabia, beginning a congressional review that could reshape Gulf air power and raise questions about Israel’s qualitative military edge.
Approval starts the review
The US State Department approved a possible sale of 48 F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia at an estimated value of $24.3 billion, Axios reported on 17 September. The decision is an approval to proceed with the proposed foreign military sale, not proof that the contract has been completed or that deliveries are imminent. The transaction must still pass through congressional review and could face political or legal objections.
If completed, the sale would give Saudi Arabia access to one of the most advanced combat aircraft in the US inventory and make it the only Arab country operating the F-35. The aircraft would represent a major upgrade for the Saudi Air Force, but the practical effect would unfold over years through training, support, weapons integration and maintenance arrangements.
A sensitive regional balance
The proposed transfer has strategic implications for Israel, whose security relationship with Washington has long been tied to preserving a qualitative military edge over regional opponents. Axios reported that Israeli concerns were part of the surrounding debate, while the State Department said the proposed sale would not alter the regional military balance. Those are official positions, not an independent assessment of the eventual strategic effect.
China is another concern. Saudi Arabia has expanded defence and technology links with Beijing, prompting questions about protecting the F-35’s sensitive systems and supply chain. The US government says proposed transfers are reviewed under American law and that technology protection is considered. The State Department’s Saudi security-cooperation background confirms the scale of the existing defence relationship, while a current travel advisory records the wider security risks affecting US interests in the kingdom.
Congress holds the next lever
The next stage is congressional notification and review. Lawmakers can scrutinise the cost, technology safeguards, regional consequences and conditions attached to the package. The sale may also become linked to broader US–Saudi negotiations over regional security and relations with Israel, although Axios reported that normalisation was not formally attached to the F-35 approval. For now, the verified development is Washington’s decision to allow the proposal to advance, not a completed delivery programme.