IEA深化了2026年石油供应合同预测,因为海湾流仍然受到干扰

更强的供应缩小

The International Energy Agency has revised its 2026 oil outlook further downward, estimating that global supply will contract by 5.7 million barrels a day, or about 6%. Reuters reported the new assessment on September 11 after the agency issued its latest monthly analysis. The previous projection anticipated a decline of roughly 4%, making the revision a significant deterioration in the year’s physical oil balance.

Demand is also weakening as expensive fuel suppresses consumption, but not quickly enough to match the loss of production. The agency expects worldwide demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels a day this year, compared with its earlier forecast for a 1.6-million-barrel decline. That imbalance means inventories must continue covering the shortfall between what producers supply and consumers use.

Reuters reported that global stocks fell at a rate of 3.1 million barrels a day in August, reaching their lowest level since 2023. The drawdown shows why slowing demand has not removed the risk of further price pressure: available buffers are shrinking while refineries and shipping networks remain strained by simultaneous disruptions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war.

冲突恢复物理流动

修订的预测反映了对正常海湾出口的持续限制,以及沿着替代路线的日益增长的危险。 伊朗围绕荷尔蒙海峡的限制、对区域能源基础设施的攻击以及对红海航行的威胁,已阻碍生产和运输。 据路透社报道,沙特原油供应在8月份下降至6百万桶,这是基础设施和运输中断后近三十年来的最低水平。

IEA评估也强调了炼油能力的重要性。 原油价格在一周内接近每桶110美元,而柴油和其他炼油燃料的价格更大。 对中东和俄罗斯 - 乌克兰冲突的炼油厂造成的损害,使可用的原料变成可用的燃料成为一个额外的瓶子,而不是二级的担忧。

欧洲有供应,但风险仍然存在

欧盟委员会在9月8日举行的欧盟政府、行业代表、北约和国际货币组织会议后提出了更令人安慰的近期区域评估。 其石油协调小组没有发现即时的欧洲供应问题:欧盟炼油厂生产高,替代进口和商业和紧急库存满足了柴油和航空燃料的需求。 然而,欧盟委员会警告说,冲突发展和秋季和冬季需求可能会在未来几个月内紧张市场。

9月10日发布的欧盟新鲜石油数据也提供了跟踪全球冲突如何到达消费者的机制。 其每周石油报记录了全国价格、税收和长期价格流动。 接下来的信号是存储耗尽的速度,海湾生产和运输的恢复,炼油厂的可用性,以及政府是否协调任何使用紧急储备。