墨西哥2027预算草案的目标是减少赤字和增长高达2,5%

更强的财政目标

墨西哥财政部向国会提交了一项2027年预算草案,预测经济增长为1.5%至2,5%和公共部门赤字相当于国内生产总值的3.9%。 该赤字将低于政府2026年估计的4.1%。 该提案现在正在受到立法审查,因此其支出分配、收入假设和贷款机构的计划而不是通过的结果。

该文件还将2026年政府增长范围从前的1.8%至2.8%下降到1.0%至2.0%。 到2027年,官员预计国内需求、家庭收入、金融条件较少限制和墨西哥计划基础设施投资将提供动力。 此外,该框架还采用北美贸易融入的出口支持,使美国 - 墨西哥 - 加拿大协议的即将审查成为不确定性的重要来源。

债务和Pemex仍然是核心限制

The government expects its broad measure of public debt to reach 55% of GDP in 2027, compared with an estimated 54% at the end of 2026. State oil producer Pemex is scheduled to receive 81.1 billion pesos, about $4.8 billion at the exchange rate used by Reuters, for debt repayment. That is far below the 263.5 billion pesos provided for the same purpose in the prior budget, although another 255.5 billion pesos is earmarked for priority Pemex investment projects.

这些分配表明了预算的平衡行动。 政府承诺持续的基础设施和工业政策支持,同时也表明财政巩固。 Pemex仍然是主权风险的主要来源,因为联邦援助可以将公司责任转移到公共平衡表。 减少直接债务支持可能有助于标题数字,但立法者和投资者将考虑公司的投资预算、生产假设和重新融资需求是否相互一致。

假设将面临国会和外部风险

The framework projects headline inflation at 3% by the end of 2027, matching the central bank's target. It assumes Mexico's crude export mix averages $61.80 a barrel, down from an estimated $78.40 in 2026, and total liquid-hydrocarbon production of 1.8 million barrels per day. A lower oil-price assumption can be prudent for revenue planning, but production shortfalls or additional support for Pemex could still widen the financing gap.

UN economic assessments provide a cautious benchmark. A January multilateral outlook projected Mexican growth of 1.3% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, while highlighting uncertainty around trade policy and the USMCA review. Mexico's official 2027 range contains that projection, but its upper end requires a stronger expansion. The next evidence will come from congressional amendments, updated revenue forecasts and whether infrastructure investment can lift activity without derailing the promised deficit reduction.