OddsFront路透社 / 伊普索斯调查给民主党人7点美国中期优势
Trump’s approval recovered slightly from a record low, but voters moved toward Democrats on congressional control and rejected his conditional $5,000 dividend proposal.
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国会优先事项
民主党人对共和党人有7分的优势,当美国人被问及他们如果立即举行国会选举,他们支持哪个政党时,据路透社/IPSOS调查发表于9月14日。 四十四%选举民主党人和37%共和党人,这是唐纳德特朗普在2025年1月开始第二任期以来最广泛的民主党领袖。
结果不预测单独的议会或参议院比赛。 国会控制是由区区和州定义的区,在那里候选人质量、转型和选举地理可以产生与国家调查不同的结果。 尽管如此,它提供了当前的政治环境,因为双方准备11月中期,共和党人捍卫他们的能力推进总统的计划。
特朗普回归,但仅仅是轻微
Trump’s job approval rose to 35 percent from 33 percent in the previous Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted from August 28 to 31. The earlier figure was the lowest of his political career. The new poll collected responses from 1,143 adults over four days and reported a margin of error of three percentage points in either direction, meaning the two-point approval change should be treated cautiously.
经济观念是共和党人的另一个警告。 受访者对民主党人比共和党人更喜欢经济的领导者,38%到37%。 路透社表示,在共和党人多年来在这个问题上取得优势后,在夏天出现了逆转。 与伊朗战争有关的高燃料成本和干扰,为家庭预算带来了特别困难的背景,同时限制了国内政策能提供的速度。
股票承诺迎来抵抗
The poll also tested Trump’s conditional promise to issue a $5,000 payment to every adult American citizen if Republicans retain both chambers. Sixty-three percent disapproved, including four in ten Republicans and nine in ten Democrats. The White House has promoted the proposed payment as a return of economic gains to citizens and has explicitly tied it to Republican control, making it both a policy pledge and a central campaign argument.
下一个有用的证据将来自竞争国家和区调查、竞选财务报告和实际投票,一旦提前投票。 国家偏好可以识别动力,但无法确定座位将改变手。 目前,调查中最有后果的发现不是特朗普批准的微小改进,而是不满仍然足以给民主党人第二任期最大的国会优势。