Russia’s eight-month federal budget deficit reaches 5.8 trillion rubles

年度目标已经超过了

Russia recorded a federal budget deficit of 5.8 trillion rubles during the first eight months of 2026, equivalent to 2.5% of gross domestic product, according to preliminary Finance Ministry figures reported by Meduza. That is about one and a half times the comparable deficit a year earlier. More strikingly, the accumulated gap already exceeds the government’s full-year projection of 3.8 trillion rubles, or 1.6% of GDP, with four months still remaining.

Expenditure reached 31.7 trillion rubles, rising 14.7% from the same period in 2025, while revenue increased 9.2% to 25.9 trillion. Oil-and-gas receipts fell 16.7% to five trillion rubles. Non-energy revenue grew faster and cushioned part of that loss, but it was insufficient to match spending. The Finance Ministry attributed unusually rapid expenditure growth partly to advance payments on state contracts made early in the year.

金融压力正在建设中

The figures point to a financing problem rather than an immediate inability to pay. Moscow can issue domestic debt, draw on budget reserves or sell assets. Each option carries costs. Meduza reported that the Finance Ministry cancelled three bond auctions during June and July after annual yields moved above 16%, indicating that borrowing on acceptable terms had become more difficult. The government has planned 5.5 trillion rubles of domestic borrowing for the year.

克里姆林宫将积累的赤字作为一个移动数字,并表示宏观经济稳定仍然保证。 欧盟委员会7月份发布的官方评估表明,外部观点不太好。 他说,俄罗斯的预算处于日益紧张的状态,主权财富的流动性已经大幅破坏,能源限制正在削减财政收入。 欧盟委员会还指出,俄罗斯大银行越来越依赖于吸收政府债券发行。 这是政策评估,不是俄罗斯预算的每个数字的独立确认。

什么要看

9月至12月的收入将决定能否降低能源价格的差距,或者支出是否继续占据主导地位。 债券拍卖的需求和收益将显示国内融资的成本是多么昂贵。 储备撤销将揭示了调整量将转移到积累的国家储蓄。 修订的配额还可以澄清预订合同支付是否仅仅引发支出,或者赤字是否反映了与战争有关和其他联邦承诺的持续增加。