Sahel jihadist violence is on course to exceed 3,000 incidents in 2026

暴力新纪录

Violence involving al-Qaeda- and Islamic State-linked groups across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger is on course to pass 3,000 incidents in 2026, according to conflict data reported by the Guardian. The regional count rose from 63 incidents in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025, while 2,145 had already been recorded this year. The trajectory shows that the central Sahel’s security crisis is continuing to deepen despite years of military operations and successive changes of government.

两次叛乱正在扩展

Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin,或JNIM,扩大了其运营范围,同时保持对国家力量和交通路线的压力。 《卫报》报告了今年布基纳法索的130起JNIM袭击事件,尼日尔至少有17起。 伊斯兰国在大撒哈拉也在尼日尔变得更加活跃。 这种模式不是一个单一的攻击,而是武装活动在不受管理的边境和越来越重要的经济走廊中持续的传播。

马里仍然是压力中心

4月份的协调攻击,涉及JNIM和阿扎瓦德解放阵线,强调了面对马里军事政府的挑战。 联合国分别记录了持续的国家安全危机,并谴责4月的袭击,在布尔克西的马里军营被打破。 联合国表示,这次袭击造成了严重的受害者,并呼吁负责者承担责任,同时呼吁重新关注民间保护和区域稳定。

民用成本超越致命

The UN recorded more than 9,000 deaths linked to security incidents across the Sahel in 2025, according to the Guardian’s account. Communities also face displacement, disrupted farming, closed schools and constrained humanitarian access. Armed groups increasingly benefit when roads become unsafe, local administrations retreat and residents lose confidence that national forces can protect them. Those pressures can reinforce recruitment and taxation networks even where insurgents do not permanently occupy major towns.

什么要看

即时的测试是,马里、布基纳法索和尼日尔是否能够保护人口中心和跨境路线,而不会进一步孤立于情报、人道主义和发展合作伙伴。 另一个问题是JNIM和伊斯兰国的附属机构是否集中在领土控制上,或者继续使用移动攻击来消灭国家力量。 预测的记录是一个分析警告,而不是一个新的个人攻击的确认,所以它不适合地图罢工警告。