OddsFrontEnergy
World events. Live probabilities.
US diesel price exceeds $6 a gallon for the first time
The record national average extends the Iran war’s energy shock into freight, farming and consumer prices, complicating the inflation outlook.
Europe enters winter preparations with gas stores below seasonal norms
Industrial companies face sharply higher costs even as the European Commission says diversified supply prevents an immediate shortage.
Daily ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz falls to seven vessels
Transponder data cited by Meduza showed traffic halving from the preceding ten-day average as renewed fighting again constrained a critical energy corridor.
US inflation holds at 3.4% as renewed Iran war lifts energy costs
August price data leave the Federal Reserve facing a difficult rate decision while expensive fuel transmits the Gulf conflict into household budgets and transport costs.
Europe’s spending on Russian Arctic LNG reaches €7.28 billion before the 2027 ban
Higher prices and increased Yamal cargoes have pushed eight-month spending close to or above the previous full-year total during the EU’s contractual transition.
European survey finds energy costs are forcing households to skip healthcare and travel
A ten-country study links persistent fuel and utility pressure to cancelled medical visits and other sacrifices, despite improvement in one headline EU energy-poverty measure.
UK economy grows 0.4% in July as services defy forecasts
Unexpected expansion led by programming, consulting and administrative services gives the government a lift before its October budget, although expensive energy and borrowing remain risks.
Australian fuel prices face another 20–30 cent rise as oil approaches $110
The Middle East supply shock is feeding through to petrol, diesel, bond yields and expectations of another Australian interest-rate increase.
Global bond sell-off resumes as oil rises above $107 and borrowing costs climb
A renewed flight from government debt spread across major economies as Middle East supply fears intensified inflation pressure and the ECB raised its policy rates.
Russia turns to South Korean and Turkish fuel as refinery outages reshape trade
A new energy-market assessment says record August imports and the first reported Turkish gasoline cargoes show the domestic impact of Ukraine’s campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
Belgium cuts Russian LNG imports to zero as EU-wide volumes fall sharply
The August shift accelerates Europe's retreat from Russian gas months before a binding EU prohibition takes full effect, but France, Spain and the Netherlands remain important entry points.
UK audit warning says delayed grid upgrades could push annual constraint costs to £7.8 billion
Only 16 of 80 transmission projects needed for Britain's 2030 clean-power target are complete, raising risks for bills, investment and energy security.
Records reveal Russian-owned Irish alumina refinery held government talks over sanctions exposure
The disclosure renews scrutiny of Aughinish Alumina’s Russian shipments as the European Union considers how to close a sensitive gap in its sanctions regime without destabilising European metal supplies.